[TRU Research] Discrepencies between Budget Archives and Open Data

[Jim Walseth]

Fantastic work on the spreadsheet. Here are updates to the two vizzes I
made yesterday, using inflation-based numbers.
I also added data attribution, fixed up labels and things like that. Happy
to make any changes that I am able to make!

https://public.tableau.com/profile/katie.wilson8886#!/vizhome/SPDBudgetsample3/Dashboard1?publish=yes

https://public.tableau.com/profile/katie.wilson8886#!/vizhome/SPDBudgetsample4/SeattleCumulativeSpending?publish=yes

On Thu, Jun 11, 2020 at 7:30 AM Katie Wilson <katie at transitriders.org>
wrote:

> Re what police do with their time… This guy Bryan Kirschner who’s a tech
> employee (he’s the one organizing the Tech4Recovery group) used to do
> community policing work & he’s writing a series about policing/public
> safety. He sent me a link to this piece
> <https://medium.com/@contact_28544/everything-you-know-about-policing-is-wrong-part-1-2639186e101e> which
> I found enlightening.
>
> On Jun 11, 2020, at 1:02 AM, Douglas Sexton <sextondouglas at comcast.net>
> wrote:
>
> Jumping off of Harry's last contribution.I tied to get homeless data for
> Seattle from 2008-2019 using the point in time count but there are years
> that only have data for King County and not specifically Seattle.
> Additionally as the years go on more areas are searched resulting in more
> thorough higher counts but I think the methodology in the last 3 years is
> relatively consistent. I added a column for King County # unsheltered
> homeless which was the only consistent measure I could find (though early
> years look very undercounted). A rough rule of thumb is ~60% of the count
> is Seattle. It's definitely unclear on if investment in housing helped with
> the deceleration of homelessness in the latest years but it sure is clear
> that police aren't helping.
>
> The salary per cop stat is super compelling to me. Maybe a breakdown of
> what a cop gets paid as a percentage of how their time is actually spent
> would be interesting.Thinking about that confessions of a bastard cop post
> that has been going around recently (
> https://medium.com/@OfcrACab/confessions-of-a-former-bastard-cop-bb14d17bc759).
> My understanding is a lot of the time these cops might be responding to
> crimes after they happen and not catching anyone and possibly creating
> unnecessary citations.You have to click the "all other crime" stats on the
> dashboard here (
> http://www.seattle.gov/police/information-and-data/crime-dashboard) and
> one thing that jumps out is there are as almost as many trespassing crimes
> as violent crimes so far in 2020. That seems... odd (unless you already
> know cops exist to protect property interests). Maybe I can dig into that
> more later.
>
> Doug
>
> On June 10, 2020 at 10:38 PM Harry Maher <harryb.maher at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Cool graphs, thanks, Jim! And yep, you're right re: inflation, Katie. I
> added that and the rest of the annual budgets.
>
> I also looked at inflation adjusted $/population in another set of
> columns. I was thinking that, in addition to inflation, it might make sense
> to normalize things by population growth as well. To Jim's point, they are
> all experiencing the same population growth, but to Katie's point, the
> narrative can change/get a sense of clarity when you normalize the #s. (Or,
> at the very least, we can just report the amount that population has
> increased over the same period b/c there remains the open question if
> normalizing budget by population makes as much sense for all of these
> programs--if the cops are smart, they may argue that they "need to patrol"
> both ppl who live here as well as those visiting from surrounding areas for
> work/tourism/crime/etc., while housing and human services would mostly only
> serve Seattle residents.)
>
> Anyway, when we look at inflation adjusted $ spent per resident, it looks
> like we were defunding human services for a while there and essentially
> barely changing funding for housing over the years while substantially
> increasing funding for the police. We can look at the # of folks
> experiencing homelessness in Seattle over the same period and the # of
> Seattlites estimated to be rent burdened or severely rent burdened (both I
> assume have increased substantially more than population growth) to add to
> a compelling story. That said, it's also a little misleading when we can't
> use 2020 numbers due to a lack of 2020 population estimates from the Census
> thus far (and 2020 is the year they increased funding for human services
> and housing).
>
> Another thought on the fact that salaries make up ~80% of the budget and
> will need to get cut, or personnel will need to get laid off: we can likely
> get some good traction if we compare what cops earn to what human services
> and housing employees earn. Something like, "for each cop that we have to
> lay off, we can hire 2 essential housing employees" or whatever the actual
> number is.
>
>
>
> On Wed, Jun 10, 2020 at 9:16 PM Katie Wilson < katie at transitriders.org>
> wrote:
>
> One reason I’m interested is that I’m pretty sure once you adjust for
> inflation, human services spending is more or less flat between 2010 and
> 2018 (taking into account the 2011-2012 dip which is an accounting thing),
> and I think that’s a good story to tell.
>
>
> On Jun 10, 2020, at 7:46 PM, Jim Walseth < jim.walseth at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Yes I filtered the data to start at 2013 because only the spd data exists
> from years before that in the spreadsheet. Once we have housing and
> services data for all years I can open it up.
>
> I question whether inflation is needed when doing comparison since all
> would be affected. But yeah I always appreciate that effort.
>
> Jim
>
> On Wed, Jun 10, 2020 at 7:19 PM Katie Wilson < katie at transitriders.org>
> wrote:
>
> Cool!!
>
> Jim, on the bar graph in the first link, is there a reason you started
> with 2013 instead of 2008 or 2010?
>
> I think we should play around with adjusting for inflation, too, perhaps
> using this:  https://www.usinflationcalculator.com
>
> I would be interested in seeing that bar graph starting in 2008 and
> adjusting for inflation (to 2020 dollars, I guess).
>
>
> On Jun 10, 2020, at 7:10 PM, Jim Walseth < jim.walseth at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> Ooh I'm liking this
>
> Sample 2
>
>
> https://public.tableau.com/profile/katie.wilson8886#!/vizhome/SPDBudgetsample2/SeattleCumulativeSpending?publish=yes
>
> On Wed, Jun 10, 2020 at 6:55 PM Jim Walseth < jim.walseth at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> I made it "tall" so scroll down to see part 2. This seems to be the
> fashion with web stuff now, rather than tabs, for instance.
>
> On Wed, Jun 10, 2020 at 6:53 PM Jim Walseth < jim.walseth at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> First sample viz
>
>
> https://public.tableau.com/profile/katie.wilson8886#!/vizhome/SPDBudgetsample1/Dashboard1?publish=yes
>
> On Wed, Jun 10, 2020 at 6:52 PM Harry Maher < harryb.maher at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>  Omg Ben. WHAT?
>
> And ok, I've been lazily plugging in numbers while listening to the radio
> and now preparing dinner, hope to be done at some point, but feel free to
> jump in anyone who wants this done more quickly...
>
> And that's great, Jim!!
>
>
> Some notes:
> - These pdfs are still v. opaque and we may have to wait until we get more
> specific details from the city council. Definitely no line item for
> "military weapons" or other definite cuts...
> - Personnel was 80% of the $398,561,697 budget in 2019 (I can't quickly
> find the % for 2020) and they report 2,172.35 FTE (with an asterisk that
> it's approximated, but...). That puts the average salary at $146,776 if I'm
> not mistaken. That's insane. I get that it's a hard job, but yeesh, also
> supposedly one of public service. Since they are city employees, I bet we'd
> be able to look at individual salaries and look at how overtime pay is
> allocated b/c I know that they get a huge chunk of their pay from overtime.
> I'm sure getting rid of overtime pay will go a very long way towards
> reducing the budget, but have no numbers to back that right now.
> - Slightly in jest, but... maybe we can completely slash the budget for
> East Precinct in addition to overtime cuts and see where that gets us. Keep
> on the facilities/maintenance/custodial staff, see what the Black community
> wants to do with the building, and reallocate those workers to the
> appropriate division(s).
>
> On Wed, Jun 10, 2020 at 6:30 PM Jim Walseth < jim.walseth at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> I am throwing this into Tableau Public and will make a few basic samples.
> I removed the first row which just said "adopted budget numbers" because it
> was confusing Tableau.
> Jim
>
> On Wed, Jun 10, 2020 at 3:53 PM Katie Wilson < katie at transitriders.org>
> wrote:
>
> Hey folks,
>
> Since the Open Data site is unreliable, it looks like our best bet for
> accurate budget data is the PDFs archived here:
> https://www.seattle.gov/city-budget-office/budget-archives
>
> Here is a mini-project if anyone has time for it.  I created a
> spreadsheet here
> <https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uDjqVID4gkBFfatMTM-hUbO-OAzR70Zc1-3GJEFZask/edit?usp=sharing>,
> where we can compile data from the *adopted budgets *(not proposed or
> endorsed) for SPD, human services, housing, and any other areas of
> interest. I think the years 2010-2020 are key, but I’ve started the
> spreadsheet in 2008 just to match with the recession, in case that shows us
> anything interesting. Filling out this spreadsheet will enable us to make a
> graph like the ones we were making from the Open Data site, only correct
> this time.
>
> I am in touch with some of the folks leading the Defund SPD effort and
> they would love our help digging up data and making graphs etc. that tell a
> good story to boost the case. So, rest assured our work on this will be
> useful and appreciated! For example, I was able to send along this bit
> earlier today, which I believe was then passed along to a councilmember via
> a council aide to be shared aloud during the council meeting this
> afternoon:
>
> The SPD budget has *increased by * *43% since 2010*,  *after* you account
> for inflation. (Not accounting for inflation, it’s a 68% increase.)
>
> Here’s the math and sources:
>
> 2020 SPD adopted budget:  *$409 million* -
> https://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/FinanceDepartment/20adoptedbudget/SPD.pdf
>
> 2010 SPD adopted budget:  *$243 million* -
> https://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/FinanceDepartment/10adoptedbudget/PUBLIC_SAFETY.pdf
>
> 2010 SPD adopted budget, injusted for inflation to 2020 dollars: * $286
> million* -  https://www.usinflationcalculator.com
>
> Increase from 2010 to 2020, i.e. 286 to 409, is (409 - 286)/286 x 100 =
> *43%*
>
>
> - Katie
>
>
> On Jun 9, 2020, at 5:34 PM, Katie Wilson < katie at transitriders.org>
> wrote:
>
> Budget office director to the rescue, kind of...
>
> Begin forwarded message:
>
> *From: * "Noble, Ben" <Ben.Noble at seattle.gov>
> *Subject: * *RE: Discrepencies between Budget Archives and Open Data*
> *Date: * June 9, 2020 at 5:31:02 PM PDT
> *To: * Katie Wilson <katie at transitriders.org>
>
> Katie – long and painful story here, but the Open Data site is not
> accurate.  I am frankly embarrassed by that reality.  Short-term we may
> take down the site, but obviously that is not a positive step in terms of
> transparency.  It was something that got set up in a rush a few years back
> and has been neglected since (and frankly has not been a priority in the
> last few months).  I say that by way of explanation not excuse.  In the
> term, the Budget Archives, while clunky, are the right source.  Based on
> your flagging of the issue, I have just asked the team whether we can get
> something else up in the near-term.  I will keep you posted.
>
> -ben.
>
> *From:*  Katie Wilson < katie at transitriders.org>
> *Sent:*  Tuesday, June 9, 2020 4:29 PM
> *To:*  Noble, Ben < Ben.Noble at seattle.gov>
> *Subject:*  Discrepencies between Budget Archives and Open Data
>
> *CAUTION: External Email*
> Hi Ben,
>
> Sorry to bother you with this, but I emailed the Open Data people first
> and they told me to ask the City Budget Office. I’m wondering why there are
> significant discrepencies between the  Budget Archives
> <https://www.seattle.gov/city-budget-office/budget-archives> and the
> budget numbers on the  Open Data site
> <https://openbudget.seattle.gov/#!/year/default>.
>
> To give one timely example,  this Open Data page
> <https://openbudget.seattle.gov/#!/year/2020/operating/0/department/Police/0/service?vis=barChart> puts
> the 2020 SPD budget at ~$357m, whereas the number in the  2020 adopted
> budget
> <https://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/FinanceDepartment/20adoptedbudget/SPD.pdf> and
> reported in  various news articles
> <https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/crime/after-days-of-seattle-protests-city-will-withdraw-request-to-remove-police-force-from-federal-oversight/> is
> $400m+. I have been digging around and making graphs and there are a lot of
> discrepencies like this. I understand that proposed and adopted and actual
> budgets are all different, but that doesn’t seem to account for it.
>
> Please feel free to direct me elsewhere if there’s someone else I should
> be asking about this.
>
> Thanks!
> Katie
>
> Katie Wilson
> General Secretary
> Transit Riders Union
> https://transitriders.org
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> 206-781-7204
>
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