[TRU Research] Discrepencies between Budget Archives and Open Data

[Jim Walseth]

Katie, Taking a stab at your request:
https://public.tableau.com/profile/katie.wilson8886#!/vizhome/SPDBudgetsample5/Dashboard3?publish=yes

On Thu, Jun 11, 2020 at 11:43 AM Katie Wilson <katie at transitriders.org>
wrote:

> Looking good Jim! Visually I think I like the first graph better than the
> bar graph— is there a way to overlay the human services budget on that one
> in the same manner?
>
> On Jun 11, 2020, at 10:38 AM, Jim Walseth <jim.walseth at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> I fussed with both of those some more. I'm going back to my day job now
> and will check in later for feedback.
> Jim
>
> On Thu, Jun 11, 2020 at 9:25 AM Jim Walseth <jim.walseth at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Fantastic work on the spreadsheet. Here are updates to the two vizzes I
>> made yesterday, using inflation-based numbers.
>> I also added data attribution, fixed up labels and things like that.
>> Happy to make any changes that I am able to make!
>>
>>
>> https://public.tableau.com/profile/katie.wilson8886#!/vizhome/SPDBudgetsample3/Dashboard1?publish=yes
>>
>>
>> https://public.tableau.com/profile/katie.wilson8886#!/vizhome/SPDBudgetsample4/SeattleCumulativeSpending?publish=yes
>>
>> On Thu, Jun 11, 2020 at 7:30 AM Katie Wilson <katie at transitriders.org>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Re what police do with their time… This guy Bryan Kirschner who’s a tech
>>> employee (he’s the one organizing the Tech4Recovery group) used to do
>>> community policing work & he’s writing a series about policing/public
>>> safety. He sent me a link to this piece
>>> <https://medium.com/@contact_28544/everything-you-know-about-policing-is-wrong-part-1-2639186e101e> which
>>> I found enlightening.
>>>
>>> On Jun 11, 2020, at 1:02 AM, Douglas Sexton <sextondouglas at comcast.net>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Jumping off of Harry's last contribution.I tied to get homeless data for
>>> Seattle from 2008-2019 using the point in time count but there are years
>>> that only have data for King County and not specifically Seattle.
>>> Additionally as the years go on more areas are searched resulting in more
>>> thorough higher counts but I think the methodology in the last 3 years is
>>> relatively consistent. I added a column for King County # unsheltered
>>> homeless which was the only consistent measure I could find (though early
>>> years look very undercounted). A rough rule of thumb is ~60% of the count
>>> is Seattle. It's definitely unclear on if investment in housing helped with
>>> the deceleration of homelessness in the latest years but it sure is clear
>>> that police aren't helping.
>>>
>>> The salary per cop stat is super compelling to me. Maybe a breakdown of
>>> what a cop gets paid as a percentage of how their time is actually spent
>>> would be interesting.Thinking about that confessions of a bastard cop post
>>> that has been going around recently (
>>> https://medium.com/@OfcrACab/confessions-of-a-former-bastard-cop-bb14d17bc759).
>>> My understanding is a lot of the time these cops might be responding to
>>> crimes after they happen and not catching anyone and possibly creating
>>> unnecessary citations.You have to click the "all other crime" stats on the
>>> dashboard here (
>>> http://www.seattle.gov/police/information-and-data/crime-dashboard) and
>>> one thing that jumps out is there are as almost as many trespassing crimes
>>> as violent crimes so far in 2020. That seems... odd (unless you already
>>> know cops exist to protect property interests). Maybe I can dig into that
>>> more later.
>>>
>>> Doug
>>>
>>> On June 10, 2020 at 10:38 PM Harry Maher <harryb.maher at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Cool graphs, thanks, Jim! And yep, you're right re: inflation, Katie. I
>>> added that and the rest of the annual budgets.
>>>
>>> I also looked at inflation adjusted $/population in another set of
>>> columns. I was thinking that, in addition to inflation, it might make sense
>>> to normalize things by population growth as well. To Jim's point, they are
>>> all experiencing the same population growth, but to Katie's point, the
>>> narrative can change/get a sense of clarity when you normalize the #s. (Or,
>>> at the very least, we can just report the amount that population has
>>> increased over the same period b/c there remains the open question if
>>> normalizing budget by population makes as much sense for all of these
>>> programs--if the cops are smart, they may argue that they "need to patrol"
>>> both ppl who live here as well as those visiting from surrounding areas for
>>> work/tourism/crime/etc., while housing and human services would mostly only
>>> serve Seattle residents.)
>>>
>>> Anyway, when we look at inflation adjusted $ spent per resident, it
>>> looks like we were defunding human services for a while there and
>>> essentially barely changing funding for housing over the years while
>>> substantially increasing funding for the police. We can look at the # of
>>> folks experiencing homelessness in Seattle over the same period and the #
>>> of Seattlites estimated to be rent burdened or severely rent burdened (both
>>> I assume have increased substantially more than population growth) to add
>>> to a compelling story. That said, it's also a little misleading when we
>>> can't use 2020 numbers due to a lack of 2020 population estimates from the
>>> Census thus far (and 2020 is the year they increased funding for human
>>> services and housing).
>>>
>>> Another thought on the fact that salaries make up ~80% of the budget and
>>> will need to get cut, or personnel will need to get laid off: we can likely
>>> get some good traction if we compare what cops earn to what human services
>>> and housing employees earn. Something like, "for each cop that we have to
>>> lay off, we can hire 2 essential housing employees" or whatever the actual
>>> number is.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Wed, Jun 10, 2020 at 9:16 PM Katie Wilson < katie at transitriders.org>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> One reason I’m interested is that I’m pretty sure once you adjust for
>>> inflation, human services spending is more or less flat between 2010 and
>>> 2018 (taking into account the 2011-2012 dip which is an accounting thing),
>>> and I think that’s a good story to tell.
>>>
>>>
>>> On Jun 10, 2020, at 7:46 PM, Jim Walseth < jim.walseth at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Yes I filtered the data to start at 2013 because only the spd data
>>> exists from years before that in the spreadsheet. Once we have housing and
>>> services data for all years I can open it up.
>>>
>>> I question whether inflation is needed when doing comparison since all
>>> would be affected. But yeah I always appreciate that effort.
>>>
>>> Jim
>>>
>>> On Wed, Jun 10, 2020 at 7:19 PM Katie Wilson < katie at transitriders.org>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Cool!!
>>>
>>> Jim, on the bar graph in the first link, is there a reason you started
>>> with 2013 instead of 2008 or 2010?
>>>
>>> I think we should play around with adjusting for inflation, too, perhaps
>>> using this:  https://www.usinflationcalculator.com
>>>
>>> I would be interested in seeing that bar graph starting in 2008 and
>>> adjusting for inflation (to 2020 dollars, I guess).
>>>
>>>
>>> On Jun 10, 2020, at 7:10 PM, Jim Walseth < jim.walseth at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Ooh I'm liking this
>>>
>>> Sample 2
>>>
>>>
>>> https://public.tableau.com/profile/katie.wilson8886#!/vizhome/SPDBudgetsample2/SeattleCumulativeSpending?publish=yes
>>>
>>> On Wed, Jun 10, 2020 at 6:55 PM Jim Walseth < jim.walseth at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> I made it "tall" so scroll down to see part 2. This seems to be the
>>> fashion with web stuff now, rather than tabs, for instance.
>>>
>>> On Wed, Jun 10, 2020 at 6:53 PM Jim Walseth < jim.walseth at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> First sample viz
>>>
>>>
>>> https://public.tableau.com/profile/katie.wilson8886#!/vizhome/SPDBudgetsample1/Dashboard1?publish=yes
>>>
>>> On Wed, Jun 10, 2020 at 6:52 PM Harry Maher < harryb.maher at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>  Omg Ben. WHAT?
>>>
>>> And ok, I've been lazily plugging in numbers while listening to the
>>> radio and now preparing dinner, hope to be done at some point, but feel
>>> free to jump in anyone who wants this done more quickly...
>>>
>>> And that's great, Jim!!
>>>
>>>
>>> Some notes:
>>> - These pdfs are still v. opaque and we may have to wait until we get
>>> more specific details from the city council. Definitely no line item for
>>> "military weapons" or other definite cuts...
>>> - Personnel was 80% of the $398,561,697 budget in 2019 (I can't quickly
>>> find the % for 2020) and they report 2,172.35 FTE (with an asterisk that
>>> it's approximated, but...). That puts the average salary at $146,776 if I'm
>>> not mistaken. That's insane. I get that it's a hard job, but yeesh, also
>>> supposedly one of public service. Since they are city employees, I bet we'd
>>> be able to look at individual salaries and look at how overtime pay is
>>> allocated b/c I know that they get a huge chunk of their pay from overtime.
>>> I'm sure getting rid of overtime pay will go a very long way towards
>>> reducing the budget, but have no numbers to back that right now.
>>> - Slightly in jest, but... maybe we can completely slash the budget for
>>> East Precinct in addition to overtime cuts and see where that gets us. Keep
>>> on the facilities/maintenance/custodial staff, see what the Black community
>>> wants to do with the building, and reallocate those workers to the
>>> appropriate division(s).
>>>
>>> On Wed, Jun 10, 2020 at 6:30 PM Jim Walseth < jim.walseth at gmail.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> I am throwing this into Tableau Public and will make a few basic
>>> samples. I removed the first row which just said "adopted budget numbers"
>>> because it was confusing Tableau.
>>> Jim
>>>
>>> On Wed, Jun 10, 2020 at 3:53 PM Katie Wilson < katie at transitriders.org>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Hey folks,
>>>
>>> Since the Open Data site is unreliable, it looks like our best bet for
>>> accurate budget data is the PDFs archived here:
>>> https://www.seattle.gov/city-budget-office/budget-archives
>>>
>>> Here is a mini-project if anyone has time for it.  I created a
>>> spreadsheet here
>>> <https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uDjqVID4gkBFfatMTM-hUbO-OAzR70Zc1-3GJEFZask/edit?usp=sharing>,
>>> where we can compile data from the *adopted budgets *(not proposed or
>>> endorsed) for SPD, human services, housing, and any other areas of
>>> interest. I think the years 2010-2020 are key, but I’ve started the
>>> spreadsheet in 2008 just to match with the recession, in case that shows us
>>> anything interesting. Filling out this spreadsheet will enable us to make a
>>> graph like the ones we were making from the Open Data site, only correct
>>> this time.
>>>
>>> I am in touch with some of the folks leading the Defund SPD effort and
>>> they would love our help digging up data and making graphs etc. that tell a
>>> good story to boost the case. So, rest assured our work on this will be
>>> useful and appreciated! For example, I was able to send along this bit
>>> earlier today, which I believe was then passed along to a councilmember via
>>> a council aide to be shared aloud during the council meeting this
>>> afternoon:
>>>
>>> The SPD budget has *increased by * *43% since 2010*,  *after* you
>>> account for inflation. (Not accounting for inflation, it’s a 68% increase.)
>>>
>>> Here’s the math and sources:
>>>
>>> 2020 SPD adopted budget:  *$409 million* -
>>> https://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/FinanceDepartment/20adoptedbudget/SPD.pdf
>>>
>>> 2010 SPD adopted budget:  *$243 million* -
>>> https://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/FinanceDepartment/10adoptedbudget/PUBLIC_SAFETY.pdf
>>>
>>> 2010 SPD adopted budget, injusted for inflation to 2020 dollars: * $286
>>> million* -  https://www.usinflationcalculator.com
>>>
>>> Increase from 2010 to 2020, i.e. 286 to 409, is (409 - 286)/286 x 100 =
>>> *43%*
>>>
>>>
>>> - Katie
>>>
>>>
>>> On Jun 9, 2020, at 5:34 PM, Katie Wilson < katie at transitriders.org>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>> Budget office director to the rescue, kind of...
>>>
>>> Begin forwarded message:
>>>
>>> *From: * "Noble, Ben" <Ben.Noble at seattle.gov>
>>> *Subject: * *RE: Discrepencies between Budget Archives and Open Data*
>>> *Date: * June 9, 2020 at 5:31:02 PM PDT
>>> *To: * Katie Wilson <katie at transitriders.org>
>>>
>>> Katie – long and painful story here, but the Open Data site is not
>>> accurate.  I am frankly embarrassed by that reality.  Short-term we may
>>> take down the site, but obviously that is not a positive step in terms of
>>> transparency.  It was something that got set up in a rush a few years back
>>> and has been neglected since (and frankly has not been a priority in the
>>> last few months).  I say that by way of explanation not excuse.  In the
>>> term, the Budget Archives, while clunky, are the right source.  Based on
>>> your flagging of the issue, I have just asked the team whether we can get
>>> something else up in the near-term.  I will keep you posted.
>>>
>>> -ben.
>>>
>>> *From:*  Katie Wilson < katie at transitriders.org>
>>> *Sent:*  Tuesday, June 9, 2020 4:29 PM
>>> *To:*  Noble, Ben < Ben.Noble at seattle.gov>
>>> *Subject:*  Discrepencies between Budget Archives and Open Data
>>>
>>> *CAUTION: External Email*
>>> Hi Ben,
>>>
>>> Sorry to bother you with this, but I emailed the Open Data people first
>>> and they told me to ask the City Budget Office. I’m wondering why there are
>>> significant discrepencies between the  Budget Archives
>>> <https://www.seattle.gov/city-budget-office/budget-archives> and the
>>> budget numbers on the  Open Data site
>>> <https://openbudget.seattle.gov/#!/year/default>.
>>>
>>> To give one timely example,  this Open Data page
>>> <https://openbudget.seattle.gov/#!/year/2020/operating/0/department/Police/0/service?vis=barChart> puts
>>> the 2020 SPD budget at ~$357m, whereas the number in the  2020 adopted
>>> budget
>>> <https://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/FinanceDepartment/20adoptedbudget/SPD.pdf> and
>>> reported in  various news articles
>>> <https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/crime/after-days-of-seattle-protests-city-will-withdraw-request-to-remove-police-force-from-federal-oversight/> is
>>> $400m+. I have been digging around and making graphs and there are a lot of
>>> discrepencies like this. I understand that proposed and adopted and actual
>>> budgets are all different, but that doesn’t seem to account for it.
>>>
>>> Please feel free to direct me elsewhere if there’s someone else I should
>>> be asking about this.
>>>
>>> Thanks!
>>> Katie
>>>
>>> Katie Wilson
>>> General Secretary
>>> Transit Riders Union
>>> https://transitriders.org
>>> <https://protect2.fireeye.com/v1/url?k=23520a2f-7de29737-2352229f-86b2e136ff17-644b0fdb8c75a238&q=1&e=c19e905a-6ec5-4436-a6cd-f7acc13cf097&u=https%3A%2F%2Ftransitriders.org%2F>
>>> 206-781-7204
>>>
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>>>
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>
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